How do you choose between Poisson and negative binomial models for discrete count outcomes?
One key criterion is the relative value of the variance to the mean after accounting for the effect of the predictors. A previous article discussed the concept of a variance that is larger than the model assumes: overdispersion.
(Underdispersion is also possible, but much less common).
There are two ways to check for overdispersion: [Read more…] about Poisson or Negative Binomial? Using Count Model Diagnostics to Select a Model