Predicting future outcomes, the next steps in a process, or the best choice(s) from an array of possibilities are all essential needs in many fields. The predictive model is used as a decision making tool in advertising and marketing, meteorology, economics, insurance, health care, engineering, and would probably be useful in your work too! [Read more…] about Member Training: A Predictive Modeling Primer: Regression and Beyond
predictive models
Descriptives Before Model Building
One approach to model building is to use all predictors that make theoretical sense in the first model. For example, a first model for determining birth weight could include mother’s age, education, marital status, race, weight gain during pregnancy and gestation period.
The main effects of this model show that a mother’s education level and marital status are insignificant.
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Using Predicted Means to Understand Our Models
The expression “can’t see the forest for the trees” often comes to mind when reviewing a statistical analysis. We get so involved in reporting “statistically significant” and p-values that we fail to explore the grand picture of our results.
It’s understandable that this can happen. We have a hypothesis to test. We go through a multi-step process to create the best model fit possible. Too often the next and last step is to report which predictors are statistically significant and include their effect sizes.
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Differences in Model Building Between Explanatory and Predictive Models
by Jeff Meyer, MPA, MBA
Suppose you are asked to create a model that will predict who will drop out of a program your organization offers. You decide to use a binary logistic regression because your outcome has two values: “0” for not dropping out and “1” for dropping out.
Most of us were trained in building models for the purpose of understanding and explaining the relationships between an outcome and a set of predictors. But model building works differently for purely predictive models. Where do we go from here? [Read more…] about Differences in Model Building Between Explanatory and Predictive Models