# Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)

Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications products and services to businesses, governments in the United States and other countries, non-governmental organizations, and consumers around the world. The company is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.25% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $29.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.90 (10.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.84% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of IRDM price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2023

End date: September 13, 2024

a = 6.2665

b = -0.0018

s = 0.1018

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1

= -47.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1018) – 1

= 50.28%

#### January 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{799})

= Exp(a + b × X_{799} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.2665 + -0.0018 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.1018)

= Exp(4.4392)

= $84.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{799})

= Exp(a + b × X_{799} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.2665 + -0.0018 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.1018)

= Exp(4.0319)

= $56.37

#### September 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,222})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,222} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.2665 + -0.0018 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.1018)

= Exp(3.3598)

= $28.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,222})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,222} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.2665 + -0.0018 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.1018)

= Exp(2.9524)

= $19.15

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.25% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $29.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.90 (10.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: February 20, 2024

End date: November 1, 2024

a = 2.9731

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0669

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1

= 7.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0669) – 1

= 30.70%

#### February 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,079})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,079} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9731 + 0.0002 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.0669)

= Exp(3.4315)

= $30.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,079})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,079} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9731 + 0.0002 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.0669)

= Exp(3.1638)

= $23.66

#### November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9731 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0669)

= Exp(3.4843)

= $32.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9731 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0669)

= Exp(3.2166)

= $24.94

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.84% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.