probability

Logistic Regression Analysis: Understanding Odds and Probability

Updated 11/22/2021

Probability and odds measure the same thing: the likelihood or propensity or possibility of a specific outcome.

People use the terms odds and probability interchangeably in casual usage, but that is unfortunate. It just creates confusion because they are not equivalent.

How Odds and Probability Differ

They measure the same thing on different scales. Imagine how confusing it would be if people used degrees Celsius and degrees Fahrenheit interchangeably. “It’s going to be 35 degrees today” could really make you dress the wrong way.

In measuring the likelihood of any outcome, we need to know [Read more…] about Logistic Regression Analysis: Understanding Odds and Probability

Effect Size Statistics: How to Calculate the Odds Ratio from a Chi-Square Cross-tabulation Table

by Karen Grace-Martin Leave a Comment

Lest you believe that odds ratios are merely the domain of logistic regression, I’m here to tell you it’s not true.

One of the simplest ways to calculate an odds ratio is from a cross tabulation table.

We usually analyze these tables with a categorical statistical test. There are a few options, depending on the sample size and the design, but common ones are Chi-Square test of independence or homogeneity, or a Fisher’s exact test.

Confusing Statistical Term #8: Odds

by Karen Grace-Martin Leave a Comment

Odds is confusing in a different way than some of the other terms in this series.

First, it’s a bit of an abstract concept, which I’ll explain below.

But beyond that, it’s confusing because it is used in everyday English as a synonym for probability, but it’s actually a distinct technical term.

I found this incorrect definition recently in a (non-statistics) book: [Read more…] about Confusing Statistical Term #8: Odds

How to Understand a Risk Ratio of Less than 1

by Audrey Schnell 2 Comments

When a model has a binary outcome, one common effect size is a risk ratio. As a reminder, a risk ratio is simply a ratio of two probabilities. (The risk ratio is also called relative risk.)

Risk ratios are a bit trickier to interpret when they are less than one.

A predictor variable with a risk ratio of less than one is often labeled a “protective factor” (at least in Epidemiology). This can be confusing because in our typical understanding of those terms, it makes no sense that a risk be protective.

So how can a RISK be protective? [Read more…] about How to Understand a Risk Ratio of Less than 1

Member Training: Adjustments for Multiple Testing: When and How to Handle Multiplicity

by guest contributer Leave a Comment

A research study rarely involves just one single statistical test. And multiple testing can result in more statistically significant findings just by chance.

After all, with the typical Type I error rate of 5% used in most tests, we are allowing ourselves to “get lucky” 1 in 20 times for each test. When you figure out the probability of Type I error across all the tests, that probability skyrockets.
[Read more…] about Member Training: Adjustments for Multiple Testing: When and How to Handle Multiplicity

Member Training: Probability Rules and Applications

by Karen Grace-Martin Leave a Comment

Do you remember all those probability rules you learned (or didn’t) in intro stats? You know, things like the P(A|B)?While you may have thought that these rules were only about balls and urns (who pulls balls from urns anyway?), it’s actually not true.

It turns out that having a good understanding of these rules (as well as actually remembering them) does come in handy when you’re doing data analysis.

There are so many situations and methods in statistics that draw directly from those rules. Everything from p-values to logistic regression to maximum likelihood estimation are all direct applications of these rules. In this webinar, we’re going to review those rules, with examples of when they come up in statistical methods that you use and are learning.

Note: This training is an exclusive benefit to members of the Statistically Speaking Membership Program and part of the Stat’s Amore Trainings Series. Each Stat’s Amore Training is approximately 90 minutes long.

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About the Instructor

Karen Grace-Martin helps statistics practitioners gain an intuitive understanding of how statistics is applied to real data in research studies.

She has guided and trained researchers through their statistical analysis for over 15 years as a statistical consultant at Cornell University and through The Analysis Factor. She has master’s degrees in both applied statistics and social psychology and is an expert in SPSS and SAS.

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It’s never too early to set yourself up for successful analysis with support and training from expert statisticians. Just head over and sign up for Statistically Speaking. You'll get access to this training webinar, 100+ other stats trainings, a pathway to work through the trainings that you need — plus the expert guidance you need to build statistical skill with live Q&A sessions and an ask-a-mentor forum.