Predictor variables in statistical models can be treated as either continuous or categorical.
Usually, this is a very straightforward decision.
Categorical predictors, like treatment group, marital status, or highest educational degree should be specified as categorical.
Likewise, continuous predictors, like age, systolic blood pressure, or percentage of ground cover should be specified as continuous.
But there are numerical predictors that aren’t continuous. And these can sometimes make sense to treat as continuous and sometimes make sense as categorical.
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by Jeff Meyer, MBA, MPA
One of the most important concepts in data analysis is that the analysis needs to be appropriate for the scale of measurement of the variable. The focus of these decisions about scale tends to focus on levels of measurement: nominal, ordinal, interval, ratio.
These levels of measurement tell you about the amount of information in the variable. But there are other ways of distinguishing the scales that are also important and often overlooked.
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Suppose you are asked to create a model that will predict who will drop out of a program your organization offers. You decide to use a binary logistic regression because your outcome has two values: “0” for not dropping out and “1” for dropping out.
Most of us were trained in building models for the purpose of understanding and explaining the relationships between an outcome and a set of predictors. But model building works differently for purely predictive models. Where do we go from here? (more…)
Generalized linear models—and generalized linear mixed models—are called generalized linear because they connect a model’s outcome to its predictors in a linear way. The function used to make this connection is called a link function. Link functions sounds like an exotic term, but they’re actually much simpler than they sound.
For example, Poisson regression (commonly used for outcomes that are counts) makes use of a natural log link function as follows:
Clearly, there is not a direct linear relationship of the x variables to the average count, but there is a “sort of linear” relationship happening: a function of the mean of y is related to a linear combination of x variables. In other words, the linear model has now been generalized to a bigger type of situation.
This can lead to confusion, though, because on the surface it looks very similar to what happens when we transform the dependent variable in a linear model, like a linear regression.
The key thing to understand is that the natural log link function is a function of the mean of y, not the y values themselves.
Transformations of Y
Below is a linear model equation where the original dependent variable, y, has been natural log transformed. That is, the natural log has been taken of each individual value of y, and that is being used as the dependent variable.
The linear model with the log transformation is providing an equation for an individual value of ln(y). We could also write it as follows, where we are modeling the mean of ln(y) (note the error term is no longer present):
This makes the difference a bit clearer. When we transform the data in a linear model, we are no longer claiming that y is normally distributed around a mean, given the x values — we are claiming that our new outcome variable, ln(yi), is normally distributed.
In fact, we often make this transformation specifically because the values of y do not appear to be normally distributed around their average.
In the case of the Poisson model, however, the link function does not change the distribution of the actual observations in some way to make them something other than Poisson distributed. Instead, the link function defines the relationship of the x variables directly to the mean of the Poisson distributed y. The individual observations then vary around this expected value accordingly.
The mean of the log is not the log of the mean
As you may know, if you have used this kind of data transformation in a linear model before, you cannot simply take the exponent of the mean of ln(y) to get the mean of y.
You might be surprised to know, though, that you can do this with a link function. If you have specific values of your x variables, you can calculate the predicted average count, μy based on those x values by inversing the natural log:
This ability to back-transform means (and regression coefficients) to a more intuitive scale is part of what makes generalized linear models so useful.
Go to the next article or see the full series on Easy-to-Confuse Statistical Concepts
At The Analysis Factor, we are on a mission to help researchers improve their statistical skills so they can do amazing research.
We all tend to think of “Statistical Analysis” as one big skill, but it’s not.
Over the years of training, coaching, and mentoring data analysts at all stages, I’ve realized there are four fundamental stages of statistical skill:
Stage 1: The Fundamentals
Stage 2: Linear Models
Stage 3: Extensions of Linear Models
Stage 4: Advanced Models
There is also a stage beyond these where the mathematical statisticians dwell. But that stage is required for such a tiny fraction of data analysis projects, we’re going to ignore that one for now.
If you try to master the skill of “statistical analysis” as a whole, it’s going to be overwhelming.
And honestly, you’ll never finish. It’s too big of a field.
But if you can work through these stages, you’ll find you can learn and do just about any statistical analysis you need to. (more…)
In fixed-effects models (e.g., regression, ANOVA, generalized linear models), there is only one source of random variability. This source of variance is the random sample we take to measure our variables.
It may be patients in a health facility, for whom we take various measures of their medical history to estimate their probability of recovery. Or random variability may come from individual students in a school system, and we use demographic information to predict their grade point averages.
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